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Bounce or continued rout for U.S. stocks today? Depends on when you checked...
Today, August 24, has been like two days (maybe three) in one. (Yesterday in my Saturday Night Quarterback post on my paid JubakAM.com site I told readers to watch to see if Monday brought a bounce or...
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Other takes on my paid JubakAM.com site on today’s global stock market pummeling
I usually start these brief recaps of stuff I’ve posted on my paid site with the phrase “What I’m thinking about today besides…” But today I’m not really thinking about anything but the rout in global...
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On revision second quarter U.S. GDP revised up to 3.7% from 2.3%–and U.S....
Back on August 22 I posted that it looked like second quarter U.S. GDP growth would get revised upwards in a release scheduled for today, August 27. The initial estimate of 2.3% annualized growth could...
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This week is full to overflowing with market moving macro news
What a week for potentially market-moving news! Let me give you a quick run down, ok? Monday: Beginning today and running through Thursday, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party meets to...
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Is the Fed’s latest revision of its economic model pointing to a December...
The decision on when the Federal Reserve will start to raise interest rates may rest with something called the output gap. And the most recent revision of an economic model at the Fed points to a...
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151,000 jobs enough to pause Wall Street interest rate consensus of “one or...
In absolute terms the addition of 151,000 jobs to the U.S. economy isn’t a great number. It was below expectations from economists surveyed by Bloomberg for 190,000 jobs and it was a big drop from the...
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To get a really painful bear you need a recession too–will we get one in 2016?
Most technical indicators say we’re in a bear market. Whether you want to call it a rolling bear, or a consolidation, or pick nits since the Standard & Poor’s 500 as a whole hasn’t yet hit the down...
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Modest drop in initial claims also argues against U.S. recession
Forecasts that the U.S. is headed into recession took another lump from the economic data with today’s release of the Labor Department’s report on initial claims for unemployment. For the week ended on...
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Friday’s jobs number is make or break for June interest rate increase from...
On Friday morning, before U.S. markets open, the Labor Department will report job gains and unemployment for April. It will take a strong jobs number to offset recent weak reports on U.S. economic...
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Goldilocks confronts a disappointing April jobs report
This morning the Labor Department announced that the U.S. economy had created just 160,000 jobs in April. That was disappointing. Economists had expected 200,000 net new jobs. In addition the Labor...
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The Fed keeps jawboning about interest rate increases in 2016
The speeches, interviews, and presentations from members of the Federal Reserve keep on coming. And they all say, “We’re prepared to raise rates soon.” Over the weekend Eric Rosengren, head of the...
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Consumer spending beats projections for April, but future expectations fall
Concern about the future has constrained the U.S.stock market’s reaction to very good news about current consumer spending. As of 1:30 today, Tuesday May 31, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index was off...
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U.S. stocks mark time before Friday jobs report
“For ’tis the sport to have the engineer/Hoist with his own petard: and’t shall go hard/But I will delve one yard below their mines,/And blow them at the moon.” So Hamlet says to his mother Queen...
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Jobs report today delivers a nasty shock to the markets
The U.S. economy added only a net 38,000 jobs in May, according to the jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected job gains of 90,000...
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Earnings from JPMorgan Chase point to solid U.S. economy
Second quarter earnings results announced this morning by JPMorgan Chase (JPM) held solidly good news for the U.S. economy. Not as much good news for the bank and the banking sector in general, though....
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What the Fed’s do nothing Wednesday said about an interest rate increase in...
My family and I move every 20 years or so whether we need to or not, so on Wednesday when the Fed was making its decision to keep interest rates right where they are, I was busy unpacking all the boxes...
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What me worry?
Am I the only one who finds Friday’s GDP report of 1.2% annualized growth worrying? Especially when combined with a drop in consumer sentiment? What’s bothering me? The deeply disappointing second...
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How long will consumers dip into savings to keep spending?
Yesterday I wrote http://jubakpicks-1565237904.us-west-2.elb.amazonaws.com/2016/08/01/what-me-worry/ that the combination of slower GDP growth (1.2%) in the second quarter plus declining consumer...
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Negative news on manufacturing today is a worrying set up for tomorrow’s...
Manufacturing activity in the United States contracted, unexpectedly, in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index released today, September 1. The index fell to...
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Weaker than expected August jobs number takes odds of Fed increase in...
Take a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at the central bank’s September 21 meeting off the books. Today, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added only 151,000 net new jobs in...
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